GOLD UPDATE 28 November 2012 – and learning example


UPDATE 28 November 2012

Things are moving incredibly fast! Volatility is going to get higher leading into the Fiscal Cliff as people position themselves for the worst case scenario as they perceive it, so on my 80:20 rule what are the options?

10% No result – economy tanks

80% Just delay promised cuts and tax increases – Look how Europe has managed to kick the can down the road for the last few years!!! QE infinity will keep assets rising for ever!!!!

10% Result – urrrrrmmmm how will that one be achieved with our self interest political system I cannot see!!!!

Now for you Americans who apparently are not allowed to make bets outside of the US see recent CFTC filing against an Irish betting shop, (possibly something to do with not declaring gains on your tax returns or maybe US companies not making the commissions – so much for free markets!!!! lets look at gold!

As MAP WAVE Analysis projected above we can see that gold has followed its script!

Not a bad projection – OK it tossed in a few sub waves but note how it has reverted to its bigger fractal wave cycle fork!! This is the sort of thing that assures me that the FED is not big enough to manipulate the market – millions of individuals, and the crap analysts that keep saying everything is rigged and that is why what they predicted has a different outcome! Urgh let me think about this one? The analyst must be right and the market is wrong???? Maybe they should go back to school with open minds to reeducate themselves to think – for a good description of public schools which is applicable to the whole Western system of socialistic protectionism – OOOPPPPSSS I MEAN FREE MARKET CAPITALISM – I really must be an extremist!!

Now back to gold! From the chart you can see there has been quiet a bit of action – we are at least at 4H-3, but I would have to go down a few more fractal wave scales to confirm! Where the pivots have bounced however at a quick glance this morning show that the drop is over and now we go test MAP Wave Analysis to the extreme – For the high it must meet the criteria stated in my above report –

we need another high a minimum of 1795.84 and maximum 1802.92 before gold can continue forming a base for when confidence in the governments ability to deal with the sovereign debt crisis  reaches its tipping point (pivot) Q5 on Y3. – Pretty tight rules but this is a rules based system!

Presently, If I am out a fractal scale it should pivot either around the central bold green ML or the upper bold blue MLU and make a new low. It will do this either way – the issue is if it makes a new low it will be along the bold blue MLL and above the bold purple MLL. If it does the confirmation that the low is in is the highest pivot between now and then and can occur anywhere in the area shown in purple below!

This is a huge range of price and time so down to 4H fractal scale

I think from this picture you can see how by zooming in fractal wave scales the turning points are fine tuned! My count is down a further 5 fractal scales, but wave formation below that may not be complete which is why I have changed the format to show where I expect pivots to fall, with validation criteria as I am not 24/7 and only do this in my spare time!!! and being a firm believer of acknowledging my mistakes – the errors I have had to date have been me – not the system, and learning from them! In the long term education is the best way to create progress and hopefully this will help people to begin to understand MAP WAVE Analysis!

So as Gold just made a new low by breaking the D invalid line this confirms that we are in H-3 as shown below and once that is in the final bottom can be narrowed further! A break above the blue 4H validation line confirms the bottom is in as shown below!

So here you can see how it works – within tight controlled decisions, and had I gone down a few fractal scales I would have known the bottom was in!!!!! Hence the reason if I am not here that followers can make their own decisions to control their emotions  – and more importantly risk to reward ratios. The down side of going long at this point is  $1718 so $15, and upside reward is 1800 or $70, hence approximately 6:1 which is pretty good!

Marc.

 

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