Hope you all had a good New Year!
Been a while! Back from Christmas holidays followed bt 4 days back in the office and then 10 days in Scandinavia to see the Northern Lights with m wife for her ?0th birthday present! 3 spectacular shows of the Aurora and 2400km from the North Pole – As she says we are unlikely to do that again but was well worth it – solar activity cycles peak so best time to go!!!
Back to gold then!
Following script and we have daily pivot -3 and very likely D-4 as shown below. Ideal D-4 should have been in the purple circle, however on the Daily tick there is a valid count. Confirmation is a break below 4H2 of 1653 (bolded blue validation line).
Below on the 4H tick you can see the reason for an alternative count! The count shown above is in accordance with MAP Wave rules, but not my fork rules! When this happens I accept the fork rule break if it gives a valid count one wave scale up – i.e. on the D scale, but that will not be clear until we get either the break below 1653.1 shown below;
or the alternative count will mean one more high above 1697.8 shown below to complete D-4;
Either way I expect once it trades outside of the orange “no mans triangle” we will know which count is valid!
I just want to take you to the bigger picture so looking on a monthly scale you can see the projection;
The ideal wave target will be revised once the above confirmation is received but looks like we will test mid to low 1400 by end of summer! What you can clearly see on this tick is how the orange up sloping ML was tested and bounced, then broken and bounced, and generally on the third attempt the break will come! A monthly close below this line is extremely bearish after this behavior!
Will be doing US indices over the next week but essentially we are about half way through the bull market off the 2009 bottom, but as wave fractals start to close volatility again will start to increase, looking like mid to late Summer.