Further Resources

Please post replies with links so that we may improve our knowledge and I will transfer them from replies! This may need to be categorized at a later date!

Trading

Reminiscences of a Stock Operator

Pitchfork Analysis

Long term demographics and spending curves – critical to understanding longer term economic and market outlook!!

Economic Confidence Model- Martin Armstrong Also great with no nonsense political “behind the curtain” dealings

Kitchen Cycles

Juglar Cycles

Longer term Cycles

K Wave – 51.6 years

Civilization cycles – 309 years

Just thought I’d put some links together for the ‘Further Reading and Resources’ section if, after your perusal, you think any are sufficiently pertinent and worthy of posting. My methodology as it stands at present – always an on-going process of refinement! – is essentially this:

1./ Wyckoff – where in the Wyckoff cycle are we? This can be at any degree; waves within waves etc.
2./ Median Lines – where are we anticipating price to react with a potential C.O.T. (change of trend) – again this can be at any degree.
3./ VSA – what are the volume and spread telling us as price approaches an anticipated COT level/point.
4./ I also keep an eye on key ‘fibs’ (though I use Gann 1/8th ratios eg. 37.5 vs 38.2; 62.5 vs 61.8 etc.) also wave counts – I’m rubbish at them mostly! – and key trend lines and channels where they seem relevant. Ditto simple planetary price lines (easily done and can be very potent support/resistance at times. eg Pluto has been at 1359 +/- 0.5 all this year – as it’s very slow moving – draw in off-sets at +45 degrees (1404), -45 (1314) and -90 from 1284 on 01.10.2011 to 1289 on 22.05.2012) and have a look see)

Caveat: if VSA is flagging a potential change in price behavior at any point I will pay attention.

The following sites also have their merits in my mind as they contain information, that at times, is valuable and insightful.

i./ http://www.marketmanipulation.com
ii./ http://www.zerohedge.com
iii./ The Slog : hat4uk.wordpress.com
iv./ http://www.stratfor.com (you can sign-up for their free geopolitical analysis which is pretty respectable, if frustratingly light-weight at times, but then it’s free so….!)

On a side-note:
[coleman300.com – I find him a bit arrogant at times, but his writings should be compulsory companions to all History classes in our schools as an antidote to the prescribed view we are spoon-fed so we don’t ask pertinent questions like, ‘why are the Falkland Islands SO important when we don’t even allow the islanders a full British passport’? Hint: hydrocarbons!]

Wyckoff
http://www.weisonwyckoff
ltg-trading.com (loads of charts and associated commentary in their open archives)
Various documents on http://www.scribd.com
I am relatively new to Wyckoff and so, as yet, I am far from competent with his methodology in ‘real-time’ situations, however, I found it intuitive almost immediately. I had been trying to figure out if you could measure momnetum by counting volume in waves – laborious – and then last week discovered that Weis has proprietary software that does exactly that! Add it to VSA and it looks to be a very powerful synergy. I’ve not tried Weis’ software as it would mean setting up a free 2 month Metatrader account/Weiswave combo and I can’t be doing with that at present. I use TradeGuider and the next update, due in September, will include the WeisWave so I may have to just be patient!

Andrews’ Pitchforks/Median Lines – Morge
http://www.medianline.com
http://www.marketgeometry.com (Free resources section has links to webinars with IB that are worth watching)
Patrick Mikula has also published some work on MLs that can be found on the web as .pdf files eg. The Best Trendline Methods of Alan Andrews. (He also does a lot of Gann material)

VSA – Volume Spread Analysis – Tom Williams/Gavin Holmes
http://www.tradeguider.com (and several sister sites)
Loads of material here with regular webinars (free and also customer ones) and YouTube videos. There’s a gold one from back in August where Gaving went on record saying that gold was about to roll over. He’s also always game to trade live if there’s a set-up to take. Customer service is also excellent.

Also:-

Goodman Wave Count System
goodmanworks.com
This appears to be a little-known wave theory – for a reason??? – that simplifies wave propagation theory compared to Elliott Wave. I have found little information on it other than Archer’s limited material. It’s relative simplicity appead to me, but as yet, I’ve not studied it in any detail or tried applying it. That said there are certainly times when you can clearly see the waves propagating according to the theory – typically in hindsight! – and then like EWT it breaks down.

Gann
While not related to your methdology and the site, his methods could be complimentary if anyone is interested in his work.
His methods fascinate me, but there’s an enormous amout of ‘mystique’ and BS out there from Gann sites so you have to pick over them carefully and be discerning. For anyone interested Patrick Mikula and Jeanne Long are good places to start. My impression is that Gann did a lot of day trading, but my feeling is that his work is better suited to swing trading until you are thoroughly proficient in his methods and that’s going to take a lot of time and study! I’ve only scratched the surface so far and typically forget more than I can remember! Most of his key teachings were veiled as he didn’t believe in handing out his knowledge on a plate. As such one of the keys when reading material such as, ‘The Tunnel Thru The Air’ is to realise that his ‘scientific’ methods refer to astrological methods. It is also important to realise that to him they were really ‘astronomical’ methods as he was only interested in the absolute and relative positions of the planets, not whether Mars was war-like or not!

and just for fun:-

Murrey Math Lines
http://www.murreymath.com (Bonnie Hill also has some MML info on her site, as well as much more on Gann etc.)
Here’s one that should probably go under the ‘off the wall’ heading, but…….! Murrey’s concepts fascinate me and his system is beautifully simple and potentially would lend itself to Wyckoff/VSA. However, trying to get clear, straightforward examples of the method at work in plain english is like looking for Rocking Horse Manure or Dodo eggs! If you persevere though you will be rewarded. I’ve not used his software, but now have a pretty good idea as to how to set the lines – which is key – but don’t trade the method as such – more of a hobby on the side when I want some ‘light relief’ as I’m fascinated! Sometimes genius is over-looked as it is, by nature, unconventional.

OK, enough! I must away – to continue rolling my stone!

Best,

David

PS. Just noticed your cycles references. Have you read ‘The Fourth Turning’ by Strauss and Howe? I’ve not read the book but several excerpts and interview scripts. If you’ve not encountered their work, you’ll find it interesting food for thought. http://www.fourthturning.com

2 Responses to Further Resources

  1. mapportunity says:

    Really am looking forward to meeting you!

    If only society would stick to educating themselves we will stop this bullshit! There is only one role for “government” at each fractal level of those that are effected.

    EQUAL OPPORTUNITY AND PROPERTY RIGHTS

    It should hence only offer security to to uphold those rights where the parties cannot reach mutual agreement!

    I am waiting for copyright usage for the fractal wave post. I really need one chart to put the context – without it you need to accept my interpretation rather than seeing it yourself!

    The only issue I have with indicators is that they rely on current data. What is happening in the markets is easy to predict. Depending on which one you follow we are in a rather large correction. Markets that have completed their black wave 5 will only retest. Those that have not will make new highs! I will try get those that I was posting before updated.

    Fractal waves give you multi wave scale action and reaction points and if it does not make it back to the ML it is creating another level of fractal wave – but it will revert to the next larger scale fractal line! So once you have your starting fractal points bobs your uncle! The only problem is you need to know where you are in time – that is the problem I had but believe it is at least sorted relevant to this 300 ish year cycle. The size of the collapse depends on where we are in the next bigger fractal cycle!

    Being a sailor look at Cowes Week.
    Big ships take longer than medium ships take longer that big sailing boats that take longer than small power boats that take longer than dinghy’s to change course depending on what is going on around them but bar a few accidents get to where they want to.
    Their individual action is to get from A to reaction point B each on a different agenda!

    Government policy change – increase taxes caused by bankers not wanting deflated money in return for their investment.
    Peoples reaction – FU!!! I earned it so it starts to get hidden.what I call NATURAL LAWS!
    Causing – bigger budget deficit (wow what a surprise! thought this time will be different because I am cleverer than all those idiots before who got exactly the same reaction!
    Causing – more force and blaming rich for being successful (lets be honest most of their riches are inherited or through not exactly moral methods with few exceptions)
    Causing rich to move out
    etc… etc….

    The one thing I can guarantee you – the use of force and coercion will increase – NATURAL LAW – people do as little as possible for as much as possible – politicians will hang on until they are FORCED out! History has cataloged this for those who choose to enlighten themselves!!

    Actions depending on what they are have different reactions and time spans!

    We are reaching the end of the industrial era. Time for change – hopefully into the Enlightened Era, but I doubt it will be a peaceful transition if we do not act fast!

  2. sisyphusstone says:

    Good stuff Marc. Wondered what had happened to you! Looking forward to seeing some more charts and your fractal rules. My trading MO has been undergoing a metamorphosis too. If you’ve not come across ‘Cumulative Delta Volume’ I would highly recommend you look into it (here’s a starter link http://www.fulcrumtraders.com/category/free-webinar-videos/). Basically it is a running total of the open interest in the market. Volume Profiling (akin to Market Profile) is another very useful tool, both of which would compliment your methodology well. From the CD (cum delta) you can see why we never broke to a new high on the last retest – abt 60k short inventory overhang. ES 1428 is the key overhead level going into next week. It’s the volume point of control from the August consolidation to the highs. Couldn’t hold it today – too big a short inventory – so we broke down through it today. Big volume void from here down to around 1407 so could be a quick drop and then hold and churn next week. Some longs – abt 20k – starting to buy today.

    It continues to amaze me that virtually no one that I know either understands, nor cares, that all ‘we, the people’ have to do is force our elected Government to withdraw the Bankster’s priviledge of creating debt-burdened fiat currency and letting the Treasury print and maintain a prudent supply of sound, debt-free, money backed by our ‘Sovereign wealth’. It is ‘We’ who permit our Politicians and Governments to be co-opted by big vested interests. Nigel Farage is about the only one who repeatedly tells it as it is and got fined for his audacity by the EU Parliament!
    ‘Too big to fail’ – now that was a brilliant bit of propaganda! No wonder Goldman call their clients ‘Muppets’ and the 99% are irreverently described as ‘Sheeple’. If you don’t do ‘Due Diligence’ on all things significant in life, then caveat emptor!

    Regards,

    David

    “Banking was conceived in iniquity, and was born in sin. The Bankers own the Earth. Take it away from them, but leave them the power to create deposits, and with the flick of the pen, they will create enough deposits, to buy it back again. However, take it away from them, and all the great fortunes like mine will disappear, and they ought to disappear, for this would be a happier and better world to live in. If you wish to remain the slaves of Bankers, and pay the cost of your own slavery, let them continue to create deposits.”
    Sir Josiah Stamp, Director of the Bank of England, 1928 – 1941
    (Perputedly Britain’s second richest man at the time)

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