Please post replies with links so that we may improve our knowledge and I will transfer them from replies! This may need to be categorized at a later date!
Long term demographics and spending curves – critical to understanding longer term economic and market outlook!!
Economic Confidence Model- Martin Armstrong Also great with no nonsense political “behind the curtain” dealings
Longer term Cycles
K Wave – 51.6 years
Civilization cycles – 309 years
Just thought I’d put some links together for the ‘Further Reading and Resources’ section if, after your perusal, you think any are sufficiently pertinent and worthy of posting. My methodology as it stands at present – always an on-going process of refinement! – is essentially this:
1./ Wyckoff – where in the Wyckoff cycle are we? This can be at any degree; waves within waves etc.
2./ Median Lines – where are we anticipating price to react with a potential C.O.T. (change of trend) – again this can be at any degree.
3./ VSA – what are the volume and spread telling us as price approaches an anticipated COT level/point.
4./ I also keep an eye on key ‘fibs’ (though I use Gann 1/8th ratios eg. 37.5 vs 38.2; 62.5 vs 61.8 etc.) also wave counts – I’m rubbish at them mostly! – and key trend lines and channels where they seem relevant. Ditto simple planetary price lines (easily done and can be very potent support/resistance at times. eg Pluto has been at 1359 +/- 0.5 all this year – as it’s very slow moving – draw in off-sets at +45 degrees (1404), -45 (1314) and -90 from 1284 on 01.10.2011 to 1289 on 22.05.2012) and have a look see)
Caveat: if VSA is flagging a potential change in price behavior at any point I will pay attention.
The following sites also have their merits in my mind as they contain information, that at times, is valuable and insightful.
iii./ The Slog : hat4uk.wordpress.com
iv./ http://www.stratfor.com (you can sign-up for their free geopolitical analysis which is pretty respectable, if frustratingly light-weight at times, but then it’s free so….!)
On a side-note:
[coleman300.com – I find him a bit arrogant at times, but his writings should be compulsory companions to all History classes in our schools as an antidote to the prescribed view we are spoon-fed so we don’t ask pertinent questions like, ‘why are the Falkland Islands SO important when we don’t even allow the islanders a full British passport’? Hint: hydrocarbons!]
ltg-trading.com (loads of charts and associated commentary in their open archives)
Various documents on http://www.scribd.com
I am relatively new to Wyckoff and so, as yet, I am far from competent with his methodology in ‘real-time’ situations, however, I found it intuitive almost immediately. I had been trying to figure out if you could measure momnetum by counting volume in waves – laborious – and then last week discovered that Weis has proprietary software that does exactly that! Add it to VSA and it looks to be a very powerful synergy. I’ve not tried Weis’ software as it would mean setting up a free 2 month Metatrader account/Weiswave combo and I can’t be doing with that at present. I use TradeGuider and the next update, due in September, will include the WeisWave so I may have to just be patient!
Andrews’ Pitchforks/Median Lines – Morge
http://www.marketgeometry.com (Free resources section has links to webinars with IB that are worth watching)
Patrick Mikula has also published some work on MLs that can be found on the web as .pdf files eg. The Best Trendline Methods of Alan Andrews. (He also does a lot of Gann material)
VSA – Volume Spread Analysis – Tom Williams/Gavin Holmes
http://www.tradeguider.com (and several sister sites)
Loads of material here with regular webinars (free and also customer ones) and YouTube videos. There’s a gold one from back in August where Gaving went on record saying that gold was about to roll over. He’s also always game to trade live if there’s a set-up to take. Customer service is also excellent.
Goodman Wave Count System
This appears to be a little-known wave theory – for a reason??? – that simplifies wave propagation theory compared to Elliott Wave. I have found little information on it other than Archer’s limited material. It’s relative simplicity appead to me, but as yet, I’ve not studied it in any detail or tried applying it. That said there are certainly times when you can clearly see the waves propagating according to the theory – typically in hindsight! – and then like EWT it breaks down.
While not related to your methdology and the site, his methods could be complimentary if anyone is interested in his work.
His methods fascinate me, but there’s an enormous amout of ‘mystique’ and BS out there from Gann sites so you have to pick over them carefully and be discerning. For anyone interested Patrick Mikula and Jeanne Long are good places to start. My impression is that Gann did a lot of day trading, but my feeling is that his work is better suited to swing trading until you are thoroughly proficient in his methods and that’s going to take a lot of time and study! I’ve only scratched the surface so far and typically forget more than I can remember! Most of his key teachings were veiled as he didn’t believe in handing out his knowledge on a plate. As such one of the keys when reading material such as, ‘The Tunnel Thru The Air’ is to realise that his ‘scientific’ methods refer to astrological methods. It is also important to realise that to him they were really ‘astronomical’ methods as he was only interested in the absolute and relative positions of the planets, not whether Mars was war-like or not!
and just for fun:-
Murrey Math Lines
http://www.murreymath.com (Bonnie Hill also has some MML info on her site, as well as much more on Gann etc.)
Here’s one that should probably go under the ‘off the wall’ heading, but…….! Murrey’s concepts fascinate me and his system is beautifully simple and potentially would lend itself to Wyckoff/VSA. However, trying to get clear, straightforward examples of the method at work in plain english is like looking for Rocking Horse Manure or Dodo eggs! If you persevere though you will be rewarded. I’ve not used his software, but now have a pretty good idea as to how to set the lines – which is key – but don’t trade the method as such – more of a hobby on the side when I want some ‘light relief’ as I’m fascinated! Sometimes genius is over-looked as it is, by nature, unconventional.
OK, enough! I must away – to continue rolling my stone!
PS. Just noticed your cycles references. Have you read ‘The Fourth Turning’ by Strauss and Howe? I’ve not read the book but several excerpts and interview scripts. If you’ve not encountered their work, you’ll find it interesting food for thought. http://www.fourthturning.com